And what happened? Bibi would not accept Bibi’s own plan. neutrality and put forth a two-state map that was designed to satisfy every security - and political - need of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (popularly known as Bibi) and his right-wing base of West Bank Jewish settlers.īibi and his ambassador in Washington, Ron Dermer, helped to craft Kushner’s plan. How so? Kushner’s plan abandoned traditional U.S. Making peace with Israel, Makovsky added, was also good “political risk insurance” for the UAE should Joe Biden win the presidency, as “it could offset strains with congressional Democrats over the UAE’s hostility to Obama’s Iran nuclear deal and its involvement in Yemen.”īut maybe the most important unintended consequence of Kushner’s peace endeavor was how it exposed the fact that today’s Israeli government is completely incapable of accepting any kind of two-state solution with the Palestinians. would sell the UAE advanced F-35 stealth jets, after refusing for eight years, it’s now.” As such, if there was ever a time the U.S. “On one hand,” he told me, “the UAE felt its leverage with the Trump administration would never be higher than now - when Trump faces an uphill reelection effort and is looking for a Mideast diplomatic breakthrough. There were also critical tactical considerations for the Emirates, argues David Makovsky, an expert on Arab-Israeli relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
For now, though, their modernization model is China, not America. While they refuse to include political pluralism or dissent in that mix, in time they’ll have to. Their future stability depends on their providing their youth the educational tools, the trade relationships, the global connectivity - and the religious, gender and educational pluralism - they need to thrive. The second trend is that ever since the Arab Spring, the collapse of oil prices and the surge in Arab youth populations, moderate Sunni Arab states understand that they can no longer retain their legitimacy by outbidding one another on the Palestine question and offering government jobs and subsidies. And, countering both is this new tacit Israel-UAE-Bahrain-Saudi axis, alongside a budding Iraqi, Egyptian, Jordanian, moderate Sunni axis. There is the Iran-Hezbollah Shiite axis in Lebanon, Syria, parts of Iraq and Yemen. First, because America is sharply reducing its military presence in the Middle East, and, as a result, new alliances are being forged to fill the vacuum.
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